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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(3:04) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-A.Callaway ran ob at CLE 23 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.51 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP