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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(12:32) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.93 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model