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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Saturday 2018-12-22 · 16:30 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 12.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

WAS
31.5%
TEN
68.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Josh Johnson (WAS): +0.245 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 18
–
TEN 26
Projected margin: TEN by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

WAS

Colt McCoy QB Out Fibula
Jordan Reed TE Out Ankle
Vernon Davis TE Questionable Concussion
Josh Doctson WR Questionable Back
Maurice Harris WR Questionable Concussion
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Knee
Ryan Anderson LB Questionable Hamstring
Tony Bergstrom G Questionable Knee
Austin Howard T Questionable Hip
Matt Ioannidis DE Questionable Shin
Tim Settle DT Questionable Pectoral

TEN

Sharif Finch LB Out Shoulder
David Fluellen RB Out Knee
Brian Orakpo LB Out Elbow
Cole Wick TE Out Shoulder
Tajae Sharpe WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 16
–
TEN 25

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:14 FG WAS (12:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – TEN 0
  • Q1 05:41 TD TEN (5:41) 22-D.Henry left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – TEN 6
  • Q2 04:34 TD WAS (4:34) 8-J.Johnson pass short left to 17-M.Floyd for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – TEN 6
  • Q2 00:01 FG TEN (:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. WAS 10 – TEN 9
  • Q3 05:01 FG WAS (5:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 13 – TEN 9
  • Q4 15:00 FG TEN (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. WAS 13 – TEN 12
  • Q4 08:14 FG WAS (8:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 16 – TEN 12
  • Q4 04:35 TD TEN (4:35) 7-B.Gabbert pass short right to 85-M.Pruitt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – TEN 18
  • Q4 00:06 TD TEN (:06) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep left intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN 44. 21-M.Butler for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – TEN 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 70%

    (12:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:38) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to TEN 20, Center-55-A.East, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson. PENALTY on WAS-55-A.East, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 31%

    (:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to WAS 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 20 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 85%

    (:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to WAS 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-28-K.Lewis.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:44) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to TEN 33, Center-55-A.East. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 49 for 16 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 39%

    (10:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to WAS 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (5:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 19 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 78%

    (8:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:20) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to WAS 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.