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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 28

Washington Commanders 13 – Tennessee Titans 12

What Actually Happened

(8:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.15 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model