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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 19 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to WAS 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.35 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 65, worth -1.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model