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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 90

Washington Commanders 10 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(11:44) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to TEN 33, Center-55-A.East. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 49 for 16 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.56 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 90, worth -5.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 47, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model