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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 9 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to WAS 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-28-K.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.98 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model