4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CHI Away

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CHI
51.6%
SF
48.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: -0.196 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Nick Mullens (SF): +0.154 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 25
–
SF 23
Projected margin: CHI by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CHI

Eddie Jackson S Doubtful Ankle
Aaron Lynch LB Doubtful Elbow
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

SF

Jaquiski Tartt S Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 14
–
SF 9

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:58 FG SF (10:58) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. CHI 0 – SF 3
  • Q2 05:52 FG SF (5:52) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. CHI 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 01:56 TD CHI (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 17-A.Miller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 0. 0-YAC CHI 6 – SF 6
  • Q2 00:05 FG SF (:05) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. CHI 7 – SF 9
  • Q3 04:17 TD CHI (4:17) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – SF 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 30%

    (12:09) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CHI 25, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (5:53) 1-C.Parkey 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:10) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CHI 31, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen. PENALTY on CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 31.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:32) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to SF 37, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (10:58) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (5:52) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (12:04) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to CHI 10, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 45%

    (12:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to SF 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:19) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle to CHI 37 for 2 yards (48-F.Warner).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 39%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Goodwin.