Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

(10:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CHI 25, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model