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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 9 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to CHI 10, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.50 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP