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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 43

Chicago Bears 14 – San Francisco 49ers 9

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to SF 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model