Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CHI 31, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen. PENALTY on CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.21 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model