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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

SF
33.3%
SEA
66.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.155 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SF 22
–
SEA 27
Projected margin: SEA by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

SF

Marquise Goodwin WR Out Not Injury Related
D.J. Reed S Out Heel
Pierre Garcon WR Out Knee
Joshua Garnett G Out Thumb

SEA

C.J. Prosise RB Out Abdomen
K.J. Wright LB Out Knee
Shalom Luani S Doubtful Quadricep
Tre Madden RB Doubtful Chest
Shamar Stephen DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 16
–
SEA 43

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:32 TD SEA (1:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 18-J.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-24-K.Williams, Illegal Contact, declined. SF 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 13:49 TD SEA (13:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Thomas]. SF 0 – SEA 12
  • Q2 01:20 TD SEA (1:20) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – SEA 19
  • Q2 00:05 FG SF (:05) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – SEA 20
  • Q3 14:50 TD SEA (14:50) 20-R.Penny left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – SEA 26
  • Q3 11:31 TD SF (11:31) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 18-D.Pettis for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – SEA 27
  • Q4 14:24 TD SEA (14:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 18-J.Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – SEA 33
  • Q4 14:17 TD SF (14:17) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 18-D.Pettis for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – SEA 34
  • Q4 07:53 FG SEA (7:53) 11-S.Janikowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 16 – SEA 37
  • Q4 04:20 TD SEA (4:20) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle intended for 41-J.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 54-B.Wagner at SEA 2. 54-B.Wagner for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – SEA 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:47) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 37 for -4 yards (36-M.Harris).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to SF 7, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-R.James.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to SEA 26, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (15:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to SEA 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (10:30) 41-J.Wilson up the middle to SEA 14 for 2 yards (58-A.Calitro).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (6:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to SF 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James to SF 28 for 2 yards (28-J.Coleman).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:19) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to SEA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to SF 30, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-23-N.Thorpe at SF 33. 23-N.Thorpe to SF 33 for no gain (13-R.James).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%

    (:05) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to SF 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor to SF 20 for 11 yards (35-M.Alexander). PENALTY on SF-53-M.Nzeocha, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 19 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 44%

    (2:47) 5-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to SEA 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 12 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens sacked at SEA 20 for -8 yards (90-J.Reed).