Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 27 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to SF 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor to SF 20 for 11 yards (35-M.Alexander). PENALTY on SF-53-M.Nzeocha, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.60 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model