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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 37 for -4 yards (36-M.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 79, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model