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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to SEA 26, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 70, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 28, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model