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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 12

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Seattle Seahawks 43

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens sacked at SEA 20 for -8 yards (90-J.Reed).

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.79 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP