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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2018-11-25 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

SEA
43.9%
CAR
56.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • SEA on 3 more days rest than CAR

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
CAR 26
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

SEA

K.J. Wright LB Out Knee
Doug Baldwin WR Questionable Groin

CAR

Devin Funchess WR Doubtful Back
Torrey Smith WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 30
–
CAR 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:15 FG CAR (2:15) 9-G.Gano 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. SEA 0 – CAR 3
  • Q2 12:45 FG SEA (12:45) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – CAR 3
  • Q2 06:19 TD CAR (6:19) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-C.Samuel for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – CAR 9
  • Q2 02:28 TD SEA (2:28) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – CAR 10
  • Q2 00:01 FG CAR (:01) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. SEA 10 – CAR 13
  • Q3 06:48 TD SEA (6:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to CAR 1 for 11 yards (29-M.Adams). Seattle challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – CAR 13
  • Q3 01:43 TD CAR (1:43) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – CAR 19
  • Q4 09:32 FG SEA (9:32) 11-S.Janikowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 20 – CAR 20
  • Q4 07:01 TD CAR (7:01) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – CAR 26
  • Q4 03:33 TD SEA (3:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 26 – CAR 27
  • Q4 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 30 – CAR 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to CAR 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 25 for 5 yards (49-SM.Griffin).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (7:23) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right guard to SEA 4 for 1 yard (54-B.Wagner; 58-A.Calitro). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 07:15.)

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to CAR 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 35 for 14 yards (49-SM.Griffin; 51-B.Mingo).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (2:15) 9-G.Gano 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (12:45) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to SEA 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to CAR 47, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-58-A.Calitro.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (:01) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 95%

    (11:47) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right guard to CAR 12 for 1 yard (59-L.Kuechly; 97-M.Addison).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (9:32) 11-S.Janikowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 68%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 70%

    (1:45) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 13 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (:04) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.