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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 34

Carolina Panthers 27 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.27 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model