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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Carolina Panthers 27

What Actually Happened

(:04) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.97 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model