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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to CAR 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 35 for 14 yards (49-SM.Griffin; 51-B.Mingo).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model