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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:23) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right guard to SEA 4 for 1 yard (54-B.Wagner; 58-A.Calitro). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 07:15.)

The Three Options

GO +3.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.31 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 5, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model