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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2018-11-25 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

JAX
44.4%
BUF
55.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.254 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): -0.219 EPA/dropback in prior starts (BUF starting Josh Allen in place of Matt Barkley)
  • BUF defense: -0.147 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BUF on 7 more days rest than JAX

Predicted Final Score

JAX 18
–
BUF 19
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 37

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

JAX

D.J. Chark WR Out Quadricep
Lerentee McCray DE Out Hamstring
Quenton Meeks CB Out Knee
Josh Walker G Out Foot
Eli Ankou DT Questionable Calf
A.J. Cann G Questionable Hamstring
Marcell Dareus DT Questionable Back

BUF

Derek Anderson QB Out Concussion
Charles Clay TE Doubtful Hamstring
Russell Bodine C Questionable Shoulder
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Shoulder
Shaq Lawson DE Questionable Elbow
Trent Murphy DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 21
–
BUF 24

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:06 TD BUF (5:06) 19-I.McKenzie right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End-around, handoff from J.Allen. JAX 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 02:49 TD BUF (2:49) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 16-R.Foster for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-Y.Ngakoue]. Caught in flat at JAX 37, slanting from middle. JAX 0 – BUF 13
  • Q2 11:04 TD JAX (11:04) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. JAX 6 – BUF 14
  • Q2 05:33 TD JAX (5:33) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – BUF 14
  • Q4 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – BUF 20
  • Q4 03:09 FG BUF (3:09) 4-S.Hauschka 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. JAX 14 – BUF 24
  • Q4 01:25 TD JAX (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 12-D.Westbrook for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line, crossing from right. JAX 20 – BUF 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:40) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to JAX 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-51-J.Stanford.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to BUF 25, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to BUF 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 14 for -2 yards (57-N.DeLuca). FUMBLES (57-N.DeLuca), RECOVERED by JAX-36-R.Harrison at BUF 18. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to BUF 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 14 for -2 yards (57-N.DeLuca).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:56) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to JAX 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to BUF 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 26 for 9 yards (48-L.Jacobs).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:41) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to BUF 19, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:20) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to JAX 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-D.Westbrook to BUF 47 for 21 yards (42-P.DiMarco, 69-R.Ferguson).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:52) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 42%

    (9:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to BUF 5, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-41-T.Herndon.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 14 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 44%

    (5:57) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to JAX 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-16-R.Foster.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (3:09) 4-S.Hauschka 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.