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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 42

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to BUF 5, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-41-T.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP