Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(7:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to BUF 25, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.94 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model