Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

(11:52) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.91 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model