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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to BUF 19, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model