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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

PHI
54.8%
TEN
45.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.088 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.187 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Marcus Mariota in place of Blaine Gabbert)
  • TEN offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

PHI

Rodney McLeod S Out Knee
Darren Sproles RB Out Hamstring
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Illness
Corey Clement RB Questionable Quadricep
Nathan Gerry LB Questionable Groin

TEN

David Fluellen RB Out Groin
Dennis Kelly T Out Illness
Blaine Gabbert QB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 23
–
TEN 26

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:26 FG TEN (11:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. PHI 0 – TEN 3
  • Q2 04:12 TD PHI (4:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 80-J.Matthews for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – TEN 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG PHI (:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 10 – TEN 3
  • Q3 07:44 TD PHI (7:44) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 17-A.Jeffery for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – TEN 3
  • Q3 02:58 TD TEN (2:58) 8-M.Mariota scrambles left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – TEN 9
  • Q4 09:22 FG TEN (9:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. PHI 17 – TEN 13
  • Q4 05:06 TD TEN (5:06) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 19-T.Sharpe for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – TEN 19
  • Q4 00:21 FG PHI (:21) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 20 – TEN 20
  • Q5 06:23 FG PHI (6:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 23 – TEN 20
  • Q5 00:17 TD TEN (:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – TEN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (11:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%

    (9:16) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:25) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 22%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to PHI 5, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 33%

    (12:01) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to TEN 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 14-N.Williams.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 24%

    (9:04) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to PHI 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:34) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to PHI 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 16-D.Carter to PHI 38 for 11 yards (51-W.Compton; 48-B.Brinkley). PENALTY on PHI-22-S.Jones, Face Mask (15 Yards), 13 yards, enforced at PHI 27.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 24%

    (:49) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 97%

    (:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 83%

    (12:09) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 33-D.Lewis to PHI 15 for 11 yards (24-C.Graham).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (9:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:06) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to TEN 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-N.Williams to TEN 25 for no gain (50-L.Reynolds).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:59) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:54) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to PHI 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 16-D.Carter to TEN 39 for 42 yards (6-B.Kern).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 96%

    (:21) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.