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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(8:06) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to TEN 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-N.Williams to TEN 25 for no gain (50-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model