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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 12

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.77 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model