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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 52

Tennessee Titans 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:04) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to PHI 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.84 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP