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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.89 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model