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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Thursday 2018-09-27 · 20:20 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

MIN
29.0%
LA
71.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LA: Jared Goff (LA) +0.246 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.048 EPA/dropback
  • LA defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
LA 28
Projected margin: LA by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

MIN

Everson Griffen DE Out Knee
Marcus Sherels CB Out Ribs
Riley Reiff T Questionable Foot
Dalvin Cook RB Questionable Hamstring
Anthony Harris S Questionable Hamstring
Tom Johnson DT Questionable Ankle

LA

JoJo Natson WR Out Hand
Greg Zuerlein K Out Groin
Mark Barron LB Doubtful Ankle
Dominique Easley LB Questionable Knee
Marcus Peters CB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 31
–
LA 38

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:01 TD MIN (8:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 17-A.Robinson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-J.Franklin]. Penalty on LA-93-N.Suh, Defensive Holding, declined. MIN 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 02:01 TD LA (2:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 30-T.Gurley for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – LA 6
  • Q2 10:10 FG MIN (10:10) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. Ball deflected off the right Upright. MIN 10 – LA 7
  • Q2 09:40 TD LA (9:40) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 18-C.Kupp for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 10 – LA 13
  • Q2 08:13 TD MIN (8:13) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 17-A.Robinson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-37-S.Shields, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. MIN 16 – LA 14
  • Q2 03:55 TD LA (3:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 18-C.Kupp for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 17 – LA 20
  • Q2 01:33 TD LA (1:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 12-B.Cooks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 17 – LA 27
  • Q2 00:06 FG MIN (:06) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 20 – LA 28
  • Q3 05:26 FG LA (5:26) 5-S.Ficken 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. MIN 20 – LA 31
  • Q3 03:44 TD MIN (3:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 26 – LA 31
  • Q3 01:15 TD LA (1:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 28 – LA 37
  • Q4 03:50 FG MIN (3:50) 5-D.Bailey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 31 – LA 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 79%

    (12:21) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to LA 27 for 2 yards (50-S.Ebukam; 58-C.Littleton).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 91%

    (10:10) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. Ball deflected off the right Upright.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to MIN 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:48) 6-M.Wile punts 38 yards to LA 29, Center-89-D.Morgan, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:48) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to LA 27, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-C.Kupp.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 64%

    (:30) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to LA 34 for 2 yards (43-J.Johnson).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 64%

    (11:03) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Reynolds.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 39%

    (8:26) 6-M.Wile punts 30 yards to LA 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-C.Kupp.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (5:26) 5-S.Ficken 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 18 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (14:11) 6-M.Wile punts 48 yards to LA 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 18-C.Kupp to LA 28 for 7 yards (27-J.Kearse). PENALTY on LA-36-D.Hatfield, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (8:25) 5-S.Ficken 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 89%

    (3:50) 5-D.Bailey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to MIN 34, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-24-B.Countess.