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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to LA 27, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.25 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model