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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(:30) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to LA 34 for 2 yards (43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.20 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model