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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 6-M.Wile punts 38 yards to LA 29, Center-89-D.Morgan, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.81 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model