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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 6-M.Wile punts 30 yards to LA 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model