4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

BUF
37.0%
GB
63.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.126 vs Josh Allen (BUF) -0.040 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 19
–
GB 23
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

BUF

Charles Clay TE Questionable Shoulder
Jason Croom TE Questionable Knee
LeSean McCoy RB Questionable Rib
Marcus Murphy RB Questionable Rib

GB

Muhammad Wilkerson DE Out Ankle
Justin McCray G Doubtful Shoulder
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Hamstring
Josh Jones S Questionable Ankle
Kevin King CB Questionable Groin
Nick Perry LB Questionable Concussion
Aaron Rodgers QB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 0
–
GB 22

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:19 TD GB (5:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 11:09 TD GB (11:09) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – GB 12
  • Q2 00:03 FG GB (:03) 2-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. BUF 0 – GB 16
  • Q3 11:17 FG GB (11:17) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. BUF 0 – GB 19
  • Q4 02:00 FG GB (2:00) 2-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. BUF 0 – GB 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:50) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to GB 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 38-T.Williams to GB 35 for 9 yards (30-L.Pitts).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 47%

    (8:21) 6-J.Scott punts 35 yards to BUF 6, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:01) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to GB 44, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 31%

    (1:36) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to GB 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 38-T.Williams to GB 17 for 6 yards (50-R.Humber, 30-L.Pitts).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:31) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to GB 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 38-T.Williams to GB 43 for 1 yard (26-T.Jones).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 39%

    (7:39) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to GB 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 23%

    (2:48) 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%

    (11:17) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 60%

    (4:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling (38-R.Lewis).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:50) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to GB 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 38-T.Williams to GB 19 for 3 yards (57-L.Alexander). Penalty on GB-27-J.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 11 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:41) 6-J.Scott punts 43 yards to BUF 39, Center-43-H.Bradley. 14-R.McCloud to BUF 38 for -1 yards (93-R.Gilbert).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 19 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (15:00) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to GB 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 38-T.Williams to GB 33 for 1 yard (26-T.Jones).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (6:11) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to BUF 16, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 65%

    (2:00) 2-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.