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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to GB 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 38-T.Williams to GB 35 for 9 yards (30-L.Pitts).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.01 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP