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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 19 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to BUF 16, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.84 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP