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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 82

Green Bay Packers 19 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 6-J.Scott punts 43 yards to BUF 39, Center-43-H.Bradley. 14-R.McCloud to BUF 38 for -1 yards (93-R.Gilbert).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.44 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model