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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 36

Green Bay Packers 19 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(4:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling (38-R.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.80 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model