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NO Away

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2018-09-23 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

NO
48.2%
ATL
51.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.144 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.216 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NO 24
–
ATL 25
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NO

Tyeler Davison DT Out Foot
Manti Te'o LB Out Knee
Andrus Peat T Questionable Ankle

ATL

Devonta Freeman RB Out Knee
Corey Nelson LB Out Calf
Derrick Shelby DE Out Groin
Takkarist McKinley DE Out Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 43
–
ATL 37

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:51 TD NO (11:51) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 19-T.Ginn for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-34-B.Poole, Defensive Holding, declined. NO 6 – ATL 0
  • Q1 03:12 TD ATL (3:12) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – ATL 6
  • Q2 09:43 FG NO (9:43) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. Kick hit left upright and went through. NO 10 – ATL 7
  • Q2 03:09 FG NO (3:09) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 13 – ATL 7
  • Q2 02:23 TD ATL (2:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – ATL 13
  • Q2 00:10 FG NO (:10) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 16 – ATL 14
  • Q3 12:09 TD ATL (12:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-C.Ridley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 16 – ATL 20
  • Q3 06:15 TD NO (6:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 81-C.Meredith for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 22 – ATL 21
  • Q4 14:17 TD ATL (14:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – ATL 27
  • Q4 10:03 TD NO (10:03) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 42-Z.Line for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 29 – ATL 29
  • Q4 07:04 TD ATL (7:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 30 – ATL 35
  • Q4 01:24 TD NO (1:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 36 – ATL 37
  • Q5 02:58 TD NO (2:58) 74-J.Bushrod reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 43 – ATL 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:33) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to NO 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 41-A.Kamara to NO 21 for -1 yards (34-B.Poole).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:01) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to ATL 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at ATL 19 for 6 yards (7-T.Hill; 34-J.Hardee).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 46%

    (14:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to NO 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 41-A.Kamara to NO 38 for 10 yards (34-B.Poole).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 77%

    (9:43) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. Kick hit left upright and went through.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:02) 5-M.Bosher punts 37 yards to NO 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 41-A.Kamara to NO 27 for 7 yards (20-I.Oliver).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (3:09) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 15 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:46) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to ATL 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:47) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to NO 42, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ATL 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 32 for 6 yards (52-C.Robertson). PENALTY on NO-34-J.Hardee, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ATL 32. Penalty on NO-49-Z.Wood, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:50) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 57-A.Okafor, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by NO-52-C.Robertson at ATL 28. 52-C.Robertson to ATL 16 for 12 yards (20-I.Oliver).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (10:03) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 42-Z.Line for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:25) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to NO 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.