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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to ATL 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at ATL 19 for 6 yards (7-T.Hill; 34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.96 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP