Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 16 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ATL 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 32 for 6 yards (52-C.Robertson). PENALTY on NO-34-J.Hardee, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ATL 32. Penalty on NO-49-Z.Wood, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model