Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

(12:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to NO 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 41-A.Kamara to NO 38 for 10 yards (34-B.Poole).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.10 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model