Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 86

Atlanta Falcons 14 – New Orleans Saints 13

(:47) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to NO 42, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.41 EP
51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 86, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model