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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Monday 2018-09-10 · 22:20 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

LA
47.7%
OAK
52.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): +0.123 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
OAK 23
Projected margin: OAK by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

LA

Mark Barron LB Doubtful Ankle

OAK

DeAndre Washington RB Out Knee
Brian Price DT Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 33
–
OAK 13

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:32 TD LV (10:32) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – OAK 6
  • Q1 04:59 TD LA (4:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 30-T.Gurley for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – OAK 7
  • Q2 12:33 FG LV (12:33) 6-M.Nugent 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-L.Smith, Holder-5-J.Townsend. LA 7 – OAK 10
  • Q2 02:43 FG LA (2:43) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – OAK 10
  • Q2 00:15 FG LV (:15) 6-M.Nugent 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-L.Smith, Holder-5-J.Townsend. LA 10 – OAK 13
  • Q3 09:07 FG LA (9:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 13 – OAK 13
  • Q3 00:03 TD LA (:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – OAK 13
  • Q4 09:24 FG LA (9:24) 4-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 23 – OAK 13
  • Q4 03:18 FG LA (3:18) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 26 – OAK 13
  • Q4 02:11 TD LA (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters [93-N.Suh] at 50. 22-M.Peters for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 32 – OAK 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:47) 6-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to LV 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-D.Harris to LV 15 for 10 yards (24-B.Countess, 44-J.McQuaide).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 18 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:20) 5-J.Townsend punts 55 yards to LA 38, Center-48-A.DePaola. 10-P.Cooper ran ob at 50 for 12 yards (55-M.Lee). LV-48-A.DePaola was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (12:33) 6-M.Nugent 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-L.Smith, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 16 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 78%

    (9:30) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (2:43) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 74%

    (:15) 6-M.Nugent 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-L.Smith, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (9:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:24) 5-J.Townsend punts 45 yards to LA 18, Center-86-L.Smith, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to LV 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:53) 5-J.Townsend punts 35 yards to LV 48, Center-86-L.Smith. 10-P.Cooper to LA 49 for -3 yards (17-D.Harris; 41-K.Smith). LA-10-P.Cooper was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 48.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:41) 5-J.Townsend punts 43 yards to LA 22, Center-86-L.Smith, fair catch by 18-C.Kupp. PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 22.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 57%

    (9:24) 4-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (3:18) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.