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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.99 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model