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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 63

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to LV 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model